Continuing the series of conversations with RBC Capital Markets, a collaboration which began several years ago, on this occasion we reviewed the Spanish retail market situation and Outlook. We also discussed about its characteristics regarding retail store performance, as well as variations in consumer behavior and fashion tastes in Spain and globally, as well as the pre-owned market outlook, among other topics. Once again, we thank Richard Chamberlain, Global Director of RBC Capital Markets, for his invitation.
- Why do you think the Spanish fashion retail market has been relatively strong over the past year? (strong economy, pandemic weakness?)
Alfonso Segura: In my opinion, in Spain, economic cycles tend to be more extreme compared to some other western countries. During this post-covid period, Spain has demonstrated resilience and metrics provide a clear picture. Let me give you some of them:
- Spanish GDP – grew by 5.8% in real terms in 2022 and is estimated to grow 2,5% in 2023 according to the European Commission (I’m talking about real GDP, so without inflation).
- Unemployment rate was 13,2% at the end of 2021; the rate is 11,7% at the end of 2023. 10 years ago, the unemployment rate was around 25%.
- Population growth. This is factor to analyze in the mid-long term, but I feel it is important to mention it. Catalonia, whose capital is Barcelona, went from 6 Million inhabitants in 2000 to 8 Million in 2023. Therefore, an increase of 33% of people that need to eat, dress, work, and so on. In Spain, the population went from 40 to 48 million inhabitants during the same period (+20%). The climate and military situation will continue to trigger significant migratory movements.
- Tourism. Spain recorded 85 million international tourists in 2023, a milestone never registered before. Spain is the second most visited country globally, after France. This has a huge impact on shopping.
- Stores: Consumers are coming back to stores while ecommerce sales continue to slow down.
- “Soft Savings”: Generation Z prioritizes experiences over materialistic things (or property), and this trend is also influencing retail shopping.
- Should we expect larger chains to continue to take share from independents?
Inditex, Primark and H&M combined market share is around 65% in Spain. And don’t think this is going to increase. In fact, H&M announced that they will close around 30 stores in Spain and lay off almost 600 workers.
Smaller brands are growing in Spain and also globally like Brownie, Scalpers, Silbon, Hoff, Blue Banana, Nude Project, TropicFeel, amongst others. Same thing is happening in grocery, where local/ regional players are expanding their presence with a stronger emphasis on local engagement, marketing and product. Some examples of regional players in Catalonia are Bon Area, Bon Preu or Ametller Origen which are competing with large corporations like Lidl, Aldi or Mercadona.
Then, El Corte Inglés with more than 70 large stores / department stores in Iberia and more than one hundred stores of their fashion brand Sfera has a strategical situation in Spain as probably the online large department store. But, sales remain flat and I don’t feel this is going to change soon.
- What are the major differences between the Spanish fashion retail market and other European markets?
As you know, European countries are different in many senses: language, culture, nationalities, fashion tastes, body sizes, and so on, apart from weather, that has also an important impact in fashion needs and tastes.
The first market difference in retail is price. Many brands have different prices in Europe and globally for the same product choice or style/colour (SKU). Companies based in Spain often price at a premium in markets outside of Spain. There is a multiplier commonly used in fashion brands. Using Spain as the base: France could have a x1,4 ratio, UK x1,6, Italy x1,2… it’s like the Big Mac Index. This is also making it more difficult for competitors to succeed in Spain. GAP, the US apparel retailer, just announced they will exit Spain, once again.
Another difference is fashion taste. A clear example is how German people like black color. If you go to a Hugo Boss store you will see a lot of black and white. In Spain, I don’t recommend to sell a lot of black options. Spain and Portugal are more relaxed in relation to fashion but it is quite conservative when shopping for clothing for work. Italy is more elegant-conservative in the North, for example and more relaxed in the South. Scandinavian countries are more minimalist, they like black, grey… US is complex due to its size and internal differences, but in general, and compared to Europe, North Americans are much more casual and have a strong preference for sportswear and comfort.
There is also a huge difference between men and women. And then, within women, style and color choices are different depending on the body shape and ethnicity. The V-neckline is a standard choice in Europe or US but not in Asia. In Asia, women shop shorter dresses compared to Europe (in general).
Finally, another important factor is the retail calendar, also different depending on the country, region and city…You need to know the local calendar, local traditions and implement a marketing but also a product-specific approach.
- Are there big regional differences in Spain fashion retail? Eg is it necessary to merchandise stores differently in say Madrid vs Barcelona?
Yes, it is. I’m sure that if you have visited Barcelona, Santander, Madrid or Sevilla you could see a lot of differences. Different fashion tastes, gastronomy, lifestyle, traditions, traditions, and so on.
This is why understanding a market and define its right segmentation is a key competitive advantage. One size doesn’t fit all. I mean, sending the right product, to the right place (of course, in the right size and quantity too). Spain is smaller than Texas but there are a lot of differences, like the ones mentioned before.
When I was working at Ermenegildo Zegna, 15 years ago, I remember to visit many corners of El Corte Inglés across Spain while analyzing sales from CRM. It was impressive to see how some regions liked red the South of Spain (Sevilla, Marbella) where fashion is more conservative in general while the North of Spain, dark green is also very common.
You mention Barcelona and Madrid. Again, here culture and weather is important. I see cities that are close to the sea tend to be more casual and modern in terms of fashion. Barcelona is more relaxed. In relation to weather, Madrid has a continental climate (dry, quite cold and really hot in winter) while Barcelona has a humid Mediterranean one. Barcelona is more casual and Madrid more fancy, in my opinion. Of course, there are always exception. If you visit these cities you will see large differences depending on the neighborhood (eg, Salamanca vs Malasaña, in Madrid; Gracia vs Tres Torres, in Barcelona).
Retailers must have a merchandising approach at the store level as there can be differences, even at city-level. This requires data and also why AI has become so important now. Retail brands need to optimize assortments at store level, because of local taste but also because tourism, in Spain.
- Is the Spanish market still relatively low cost to serve, or is labour inflation becoming more of an issue?
The Spanish market is low cost if you refer to staff costs but rental is high, and extremely high in some cities like Barcelona or Madrid. Just to give you some detail, comparing expenses from a store located in Frankfurt and Barcelona (similar size and net sales). In Frankfurt, the rent-to-net sales ratio is around 14%. In BCN it is around 27%. But, in Frankfurt, the staff cost-to-net-sales ratio is 25% and in BCN is 17%.
The avg. annual salary in Germany, for retail staff, is around €50,000euros and in Spain is €25,000. If you analize the P&L of a store located in a secondary city such Zaragoza, ratios are more similar to the store in Frankfurt because rental is lower compared to Barcelona.
In relation to total expenses, there is little difference. The most important factor when expanding your retail business, in my opinion, is how flexible staff and rental contracts are (apart from managing assortment and inventory). If a store doesn’t sell, it is key to close it as soon as possible and, in some countries, to lay-off or close a rental contract with the landlord is difficult, expensive and slow.
- How important is tourism for the fashion retail sector in Spain?
Very important, as I mentioned before. And to be more concrete, it represented almost 13% of the Gross Domestic Product in 2023 in Spain. Tourists represent more than 70% of sales in some stores at Paseo de Gracia, Barcelona. And this percentage is higher if you are a luxury brand.
In Spain, some cities or regions are more seasonal than others in relation to tourism and this is also important when managing stores. Places like Mallorca, Ibiza or Marbella are very seasonal, for example.
- How do you see the health of the department store sector in Spain? Has it been heavily impacted by the growth of digital/online retail?
In Spain departments stores are essentially only one: El Corte Inglés. It is the largest department store in Europe, with around 74 point of sales, which 72 are in Spain and 2 in Portugal. In Spain, there are 65 cities with a population above 100,000 inhabitants. So you can imagine El Corte Inglés is almost everywhere. Its revenues (around 14 Billion euros) are flat since 2010, even decreasing.
Many things have changed during the last 14 years in Spain and globally. The most important one is how the internet changed the way we communicate and social media. El Corte Inglés was too slow to adapt to new generations. Also, the internet provided a lot of data to customers, like large assortments, pricing comparables and product descriptions. Therefore, the cost of opportunity of visiting El Corte Inglés makes other options more attractive.
El Corte Inglés is not any more the only option, nor the cheapest price. El Corte Inglés took a long time to launch its e-commerce platform due to its lack of agility. Then, Retail has changed in the sense that B2B brands opened their own stores (eg. Apple, Sonos, Salomon, …). That is, ECI is experiencing the changes of the modern era due to the arrival of new competitors, new consumer trends, but above all, because it has failed to adapt to change in a timely manner.
- Are you seeing a shift in styles away from casual or athleisure, to smarter, more formalwear, as many people are going out more and returning to the office full time?
In Spain, lifestyle and quality of life is essential. And after covid, people are even more conscious about enjoying outdoor and social activities. In fact, it is interesting to see how Padel (a mix between tennis and squash), very popular in Spain for many years, it is gaining popularity in Europe and globally. Also, many companies offer hibrid working conditions and many people work from home 1 day a week. So, comfort is still a key attribute when shopping.
But, as you said, formalwear is increasing its market share again, because people are coming back to the office. But I don’t see a lot of men wearing a tie. The style is more relaxed. If you enter Massimo Dutti’s site, that used to display a formal-wear, conservative assortment, you will see the big shift it is trying to achieve. They are trying to recover customers that moved to brands such as Scalpers, Silbon, Mango or Adolfo Dominguez.
- Is the pre-owned market becoming more popular in Spain?
I have been following pre-owned trends for a while but apart from luxury (eg. Vestiaire Collective) I don’t see it as a revenue stream for mass-market brands. Zara launched a new pre-owned business but in my opinion the objective is more about being compliant with ESG requirements and the interest of investors. Even Shein has a similar service.
I think that the limitation of this business model is low-cost clothing. Why would you buy a pre-owned low-price item if you have brands such as Lefties, Primark or Shein selling new trendy items at a very low price? In my opinion, customers, on average, are not so conscious about sustainability. Price remains the primary factor driving shopping decisions for the majority of consumers.
- How do you see the outlook for the Spanish fashion retail sector in 2024?
I’m optimistic, as I explained a few minutes ago while describing the economic situation in Spain. It is true that a certain level of contraction or reduction in optimism is anticipated. But, if there are no more geopolitic “surprises” and tourism doesn’t slow down, I see Spain as a positive market for lifestyle brands. 2023 has been an incredible year for many Spanish brands or conglomerates such as Puig, Inditex, STL (Carolina Herrera and Purificación García) and Mango, Tendam, among others.
11. Any thoughts on Tendam’s positioning in Spain and how it competes with Inditex and H&M?
Tendam is creating new brands that many people do not know but can be found in Cortefiel stores. I see them as “white labels” especialized in specific customer segments. Cortefiel is also adding external brands in its stores and ecommerce (eg. Columbia, Asics, Nike, Fred Perry, Lacoste…). It is creating a marketplace to drive more traffic, and specially potential customers from other brands that wouldn’t have Tendam as a top of mind company.
Tendam has a database of more than 32mn customers, but these customers are, in my opinion, older (and also not sure how accurate/updated is this data base…). As such it is looking to attract younger demographics by adding newer brands and strategies. The private equity investors in Tendam (CVC, PAI) may look to exit this year or next year. But this could change because of their great annual results. Tendam stated on an investor call late last year that is is looking at a dual track process.
En Español
Continuando la serie de debates con RBC Capital Markets, en esta ocasión hablamos sobre la situación de la economía en España, especialmente del mercado minorista y moda. Repasamos su situación actual y previsiones, así como las características del sector en España, tanto internas sus diferencias con otros mercados, variaciones en el comportamiento del consumidor, la perspectiva del mercado de segunda mano, entre otros.
1. ¿Por qué crees que el mercado minorista de moda español ha sido relativamente fuerte durante el último año?
Alfonso Segura: En mi opinión, en España, los ciclos económicos tienden a ser más extremos en comparación con algunos otros países occidentales. Durante este período posterior a la pandemia, España ha demostrado una resiliencia extraordinaria y las métricas proporcionan una imagen clara. Permíteme darte algunas de ellas:
- Producto Interior Bruto (PIB) español: creció un 5,8% en términos reales en 2022 y se estima que crecerá un 2,5% en 2023 según la Comisión Europea (hablo de PIB real, es decir, sin inflación). In 2023, la previsión de crecimiento es de 0,7 en Francia y -0,3 en Alemania.
- La tasa de desempleo fue del 13,2% a finales de 2021; la tasa es del 11,7% a fines de 2023. Hace 10 años, la tasa de desempleo estaba alrededor del 25%.
- Crecimiento poblacional. Este es un factor para analizar a medio-largo plazo, pero creo que es importante mencionarlo. Cataluña, cuya capital es Barcelona, pasó de tener 6 millones de habitantes en 2000 a 8 millones en 2023. Por lo tanto, un aumento del 33% de personas que necesitan comer, vestirse, trabajar, etc. En España, la población pasó de 40 a 48 millones de habitantes durante el mismo período (+20%). El clima y la situación militar continuarán desencadenando movimientos migratorios significativos.
- Turismo. España registró 85 millones de turistas internacionales en 2023, un hito nunca antes registrado. España es el segundo país más visitado a nivel mundial, después de Francia. Esto tiene un gran impacto en las compras.
- Tiendas: Los consumidores están volviendo a las tiendas mientras que las ventas en línea continúan desacelerándose.
- “Ahorros suaves” (Soft Savings, en inglés): La Generación Z prioriza las experiencias sobre las cosas materialistas (o la propiedad), y esta tendencia también está influyendo en las compras minoristas.
2. ¿Deberíamos esperar que las cadenas más grandes continúen ganando participación frente a los independientes?
La participación de mercado combinada de Inditex, Primark y H&M es aproximadamente del 65% en España. Y no creo que esto vaya a aumentar. De hecho, H&M anunció que cerrará alrededor de 30 tiendas en España y despedirá a casi 600 trabajadores.
Marcas más pequeñas están creciendo en España y también a nivel global, como Brownie, Scalpers, Silbon, Hoff, Blue Banana, Nude Project, TropicFeel, entre otras. Lo mismo está sucediendo en comestibles, donde los jugadores locales/regionales están expandiendo su presencia con un mayor énfasis en la participación local, el marketing y el producto. Algunos ejemplos de jugadores regionales en Cataluña son Bon Area, Bon Preu o Ametller Origen, que compiten con grandes corporaciones como Lidl, Aldi o Mercadona.
Luego, El Corte Inglés, con más de 70 grandes almacenes/tiendas por departamentos en Iberia y más de cien tiendas de su marca de moda Sfera, tiene una situación estratégica en España como probablemente el gran almacén en línea más importante. Pero, las ventas siguen siendo planas y no creo que esto vaya a cambiar pronto.
3. ¿Cuáles son las principales diferencias entre el mercado minorista de moda español y otros mercados europeos?
Como sabes, los países europeos son diferentes en muchos sentidos: idioma, cultura, nacionalidades, gustos de moda, tallas de cuerpo, y así sucesivamente, aparte del clima, que también tiene un impacto importante en las necesidades y gustos de moda.
La primera diferencia de mercado en el comercio minorista es el precio. Muchas marcas tienen diferentes precios en Europa y a nivel global para el mismo producto o estilo/color (SKU). Las empresas con sede en España a menudo tienen precios premium en mercados fuera de España. Hay un multiplicador comúnmente utilizado en marcas de moda. Usando España como base: Francia podría tener un ratio x1,4, Reino Unido x1,6, Italia x1,2… es como el Índice Big Mac. Esto también dificulta que los competidores tengan éxito en España. GAP, el minorista de ropa estadounidense, acaba de anunciar que abandonará España, una vez más.
Otra diferencia es el gusto por la moda. Un claro ejemplo es cómo a los alemanes les gusta el color negro. Si vas a una tienda de Hugo Boss, verás mucho negro y blanco. En España, no recomendaría vender muchas opciones en negro. España y Portugal son más relajados en relación con la moda, pero son bastante conservadores al comprar ropa para el trabajo. Italia es más elegante-conservador en el norte, por ejemplo, y más relajado en el sur. Los países escandinavos son más minimalistas, les gusta el negro, el gris… Estados Unidos es complejo debido a su tamaño y diferencias internas, pero en general, y en comparación con Europa, los norteamericanos son mucho más informales y tienen una fuerte preferencia por la ropa deportiva y la comodidad.
También hay una gran diferencia entre hombres y mujeres. Y luego, dentro de las mujeres, las elecciones de estilo y color son diferentes dependiendo de la forma del cuerpo y la etnia. El escote en V es una opción estándar en Europa o Estados Unidos, pero no en Asia. En Asia, las mujeres compran vestidos más cortos en comparación con Europa (en general).
Finalmente, otro factor importante es el calendario minorista, también diferente según el país, la región y la ciudad… Necesitas conocer el calendario local, las tradiciones locales e implementar un enfoque de marketing pero también específico del producto.
4. ¿Existen grandes diferencias regionales en el comercio minorista de moda en España? Por ejemplo, ¿es necesario mercadear las tiendas de manera diferente en Madrid en comparación con Barcelona?
Sí, lo es. Estoy seguro de que si has visitado Barcelona, Santander, Madrid o Sevilla, has podido ver muchas diferencias. Diferentes gustos de moda, gastronomía, estilo de vida, tradiciones y así sucesivamente.
Por eso entender un mercado y definir su segmentación correcta es una ventaja competitiva clave. Una talla no sirve para todos. Quiero decir, enviar el producto correcto, al lugar correcto (por supuesto, también en la talla y cantidad correctas). España es más pequeña que Texas pero hay muchas diferencias, como las mencionadas anteriormente.
Cuando trabajaba en Ermenegildo Zegna, hace 15 años, recuerdo visitar muchos rincones de El Corte Inglés en toda España mientras analizaba las ventas desde el CRM. Fue impresionante ver cómo algunas regiones, como el sur de España (Sevilla, Marbella), les gustaba el color rojo, donde la moda es más conservadora en general, mientras que en el norte de España, el verde oscuro también es muy común.
Mencionas Barcelona y Madrid. Nuevamente, aquí la cultura y el clima son importantes. Veo que las ciudades cercanas al mar tienden a ser más informales y modernas en términos de moda. Barcelona es más relajada. En relación con el clima, Madrid tiene un clima continental (seco, bastante frío y realmente caluroso en invierno) mientras que Barcelona tiene un clima mediterráneo húmedo. Barcelona es más casual y Madrid más elegante, en mi opinión. Por supuesto, siempre hay excepciones. Si visitas estas ciudades, verás grandes diferencias según el barrio (por ejemplo, Salamanca vs. Malasaña, en Madrid; Gracia vs. Tres Torres, en Barcelona).
Los minoristas deben tener un enfoque de mercadotecnia a nivel de tienda, ya que puede haber diferencias, incluso a nivel de ciudad. Esto requiere datos y también por eso la inteligencia artificial se ha vuelto tan importante ahora. Las marcas minoristas necesitan optimizar los surtidos a nivel de tienda, debido al gusto local pero también debido al turismo, en España.
5. ¿El mercado español sigue siendo relativamente económico en términos de costes de servicio, o la inflación laboral se está convirtiendo en una amenaza?
El mercado español es económico si nos referimos a los costos de personal, pero el alquiler es alto, y extremadamente alto en algunas ciudades como Barcelona o Madrid. Solo para dar un detalle, comparando gastos de una tienda ubicada en Frankfurt y Barcelona (tamaño similar y ventas netas). En Frankfurt, la proporción de alquiler a ventas netas es de alrededor del 14%. En BCN es alrededor del 27%. Pero, en Frankfurt, la proporción de costos de personal a ventas netas es del 25% y en BCN es del 17%.
El salario anual promedio en Alemania, para el personal de ventas minoristas, es de alrededor de 50.000 euros y en España es de 25.000 euros. Si analizas el P&L de una tienda ubicada en una ciudad secundaria como Zaragoza, las ratios son más similares a las de la tienda en Frankfurt porque el alquiler es más bajo en comparación con Barcelona.
En relación con los gastos totales, hay poca diferencia. El factor más importante al expandir tu negocio minorista, en mi opinión, es la flexibilidad de los contratos de personal y alquiler (además de gestionar el surtido y el inventario). Si una tienda no vende, es clave cerrarla lo antes posible y, en algunos países, despedir o rescindir un contrato de alquiler con el propietario puede ser difícil, costoso y lento.
6. ¿Qué tan importante es el turismo para el sector minorista de moda en España?
Muy importante, como mencioné antes. Y para ser más concreto, representó casi el 13% del Producto Interno Bruto en 2023 en España. Los turistas representan más del 70% de las ventas en algunas tiendas en el Paseo de Gracia, Barcelona. Y este porcentaje es mayor si eres una marca de lujo.
En España, algunas ciudades o regiones son más estacionales que otras en relación con el turismo y esto también es importante al administrar las tiendas. Lugares como Mallorca, Ibiza o Marbella son muy estacionales, por ejemplo.
7. ¿Cómo ves la salud del sector de grandes almacenes en España? ¿Ha sido fuertemente impactado por el crecimiento del comercio digital/en línea?
En España, los grandes almacenes están esencialmente representados por El Corte Inglés. Es el mayor almacén por departamentos de Europa, con alrededor de 74 puntos de venta, principalmente en España, y 2 en Portugal. En España, hay 65 ciudades con una población superior a 100.000 habitantes. Así que puedes imaginar que El Corte Inglés está casi en todas partes. Sus ingresos (alrededor de 14 mil millones de euros) han permanecido planos desde 2010, incluso disminuyendo.
Muchas cosas han cambiado durante los últimos 14 años en España y en todo el mundo. El más importante es cómo internet cambió la forma en que nos comunicamos y las redes sociales. El Corte Inglés fue demasiado lento para adaptarse a las nuevas generaciones. Además, internet proporcionó mucha información a los clientes, como grandes surtidos, comparables de precios y descripciones de productos. Por lo tanto, el costo de oportunidad de visitar El Corte Inglés hace que otras opciones sean más atractivas.
El Corte Inglés ya no es la única opción, ni el precio más barato. El Corte Inglés tardó mucho en lanzar su plataforma de comercio electrónico debido a su falta de agilidad. Luego, el comercio minorista ha cambiado en el sentido de que las marcas B2B abrieron sus propias tiendas (por ejemplo, Apple, Sonos, Salomon,…). Es decir, ECI está experimentando los cambios de la era moderna debido a la llegada de nuevos competidores, nuevas tendencias de consumo, pero sobre todo, porque no ha logrado adaptarse al cambio de manera oportuna.
8. ¿Estás viendo un cambio en los estilos alejándose de lo casual o el athleisure, hacia prendas más formales, ya que muchas personas están saliendo más y regresando a la oficina a tiempo completo?
En España, el estilo de vida y la calidad de vida son esenciales. Y después de la covid, las personas son aún más conscientes de disfrutar de actividades al aire libre y sociales. De hecho, es interesante ver cómo el Padel (una mezcla entre tenis y squash), muy popular en España durante muchos años, está ganando popularidad en Europa y a nivel global. Además, muchas empresas ofrecen condiciones de trabajo híbridas y muchas personas trabajan desde casa 1 día a la semana. Entonces, la comodidad sigue siendo un atributo clave al hacer compras.
Pero, como mencionaste, la ropa formal está aumentando nuevamente su participación en el mercado, porque las personas están regresando a la oficina. Pero no veo a muchos hombres usando corbata. El estilo es más relajado. Si entras en el sitio de Massimo Dutti, que solía mostrar un surtido formal y conservador, verás el gran cambio que está tratando de lograr. Están intentando recuperar clientes que se han pasado a marcas como Scalpers, Silbon, Mango o Adolfo Domínguez.
9. ¿Está volviéndose más popular el mercado de segunda mano en España?
He estado siguiendo las tendencias de segunda mano por un tiempo, pero aparte del lujo (por ejemplo, Vestiaire Collective), no lo veo como una fuente de ingresos para marcas de mercado masivo. Zara lanzó un nuevo negocio de segunda mano, pero en mi opinión, el objetivo es más cumplir con los requisitos de ESG y el interés de los inversores. Incluso Shein tiene un servicio similar.
Creo que la limitación de este modelo de negocio es la ropa de bajo costo. ¿Por qué comprarías un artículo de segunda mano de bajo precio si tienes marcas como Lefties, Primark o Shein vendiendo artículos nuevos y de moda a un precio muy bajo? En mi opinión, los clientes, en promedio, no son tan conscientes sobre la sostenibilidad. El precio sigue siendo el factor principal que impulsa las decisiones de compra para la mayoría de los consumidores.
10. ¿Cómo ves las perspectivas para el sector minorista de moda español en 2024?
Soy optimista, como expliqué hace unos minutos mientras describía la situación económica en España. Es cierto que se anticipa cierto nivel de contracción o reducción en el optimismo. Pero, si no hay más “sorpresas” geopolíticas y el turismo no se desacelera, veo a España como un mercado positivo para las marcas de estilo de vida. El 2023 ha sido un año increíble para muchas marcas o conglomerados españoles como Puig, Inditex, STL (Carolina Herrera y Purificación García) y Mango, Tendam, entre otros.
11. ¿Alguna reflexión sobre la posición de Tendam en España y cómo compite con Inditex y H&M?
Tendam está creando nuevas marcas que muchas personas no conocen pero que se pueden encontrar en las tiendas de Cortefiel. Las veo como “etiquetas blancas” especializadas en segmentos de clientes específicos. Cortefiel también está agregando marcas externas en sus tiendas y comercio electrónico (por ejemplo, Columbia, Asics, Nike, Fred Perry, Lacoste…). Está creando un mercado para atraer más tráfico, y especialmente clientes potenciales de otras marcas que no tendrían a Tendam como una empresa principal en mente.
Tendam tiene una base de datos de más de 32 millones de clientes, pero estos clientes, en mi opinión, son mayores (y tampoco estoy seguro de cuán precisa/actualizada está esta base de datos…). Por lo tanto, está buscando atraer a segmentos demográficos más jóvenes mediante la adición de marcas y estrategias más nuevas. Los inversores de capital privado en Tendam (CVC, PAI) pueden buscar salir este año o el próximo. Pero esto podría cambiar debido a sus excelentes resultados anuales. Tendam declaró en una llamada de inversionistas a fines del año pasado que está considerando un proceso de doble vía.
- Saye sets out strategy focused on product, international expansion to double sales by 2028, Fashion Network
In this interview with FashionNetwork, I discuss SAYE’s strategic roadmap for the coming years: strengthening our product offering, accelerating international expansion, and building the foundations to double sales by 2028 while staying true to our sustainable and innovative DNA. - SAYE Launches Lignify: Turning Plant Waste into a New Generation of Sustainable Sneakers
I’m very pleased to share a major milestone in our commitment to sustainable materials. It has been almost two years since I took on the challenge of leading this company. The first step was deciding to produce 100% of our sneakers in Portugal and improve their overall quality — which also meant increasing the production cost of our footwear. Since then, we have launched new models such as the Ground (barefoot), the M70 Soul, the M26 Dawn, and the M01 Atlas, with many more to come. More sustainable, more conscious fashion. As SAYE celebrates its 8th anniversary, the Barcelona-based sneaker brand is marking the milestone with a strong commitment to what has always been part of its DNA: leading by doing in sustainable innovation. To commemorate the occasion, SAYE is introducing Lignify, a new initiative focused on launching sneaker models made with innovative and responsible materials such as lignin, reinforcing the brand’s mission to continuously push the boundaries of sustainable footwear. This special collection is entirely made with lignin, an innovative material derived from wood and paper industry waste, reinforcing SAYE’s commitment to circularity, responsible innovation, and sustainable material development. The launch of these eight sneakers is not just symbolic; because they are made from a tree-derived material, the collection naturally reinforces one of SAYE’s founding commitments: planting trees for every pair sold. For this anniversary edition, the brand will go a step further by planting four trees for every pair sold instead of the usual two, giving the celebration a double impact that aligns product innovation with tangible environmental action. In addition, SAYE will collaborate with Greenspark so that after each purchase, customers receive a personalized email confirming that they have sponsored four trees in Kenya, turning environmental impact into something visible, tangible, and personal. As the footwear industry continues its search for alternatives to petroleum-based materials, SAYE’s latest innovation explores the potential of lignin, one of the most abundant natural polymers on Earth. Unlocking the Potential of Lignin Lignin is a natural substance found in plants that gives them structure and rigidity. Despite its abundance, it is largely treated as a byproduct of industrial processes such as paper manufacturing and is often discarded. Through the Lignify initiative, SAYE is working to repurpose this overlooked material and integrate it into footwear components. By doing so, the brand aims to give plant waste a second life while reducing reliance on traditional synthetic inputs commonly used in sneaker production. Measuring the Environmental Impact To support the development of Lignify, SAYE conducted a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate the environmental footprint of the material across several key indicators. The analysis looked at metrics including water consumption, carbon emissions, eutrophication potential, and abiotic resource depletion. Metric SAYE Industry Avg Improvement Water use 6.07 m³ 9.95 m³ 39% less Carbon emissions 8.21 kg CO₂ 10.80 kg CO₂ 24% less Eutrophication 23.93 g 37.39 g 36% less Resource depletion 137.67 MJ 183.56 MJ 25% less Material Innovation as Brand Strategy For SAYE, Lignify represents more than a new material—it reflects the brand’s broader design philosophy. The company has focused on combining contemporary sneaker design with responsible material sourcing and production practices. With Lignify, SAYE continues to explore new ways of reducing environmental impact while pushing forward the conversation around the future of sustainable footwear. - When Sustainability Meets Execution: How Saye Is Reinventing Its Strategy to Scale
Very happy to share my thoughts in this interview with Modaes (February 18th, 2026). It’s been almost 20 years working in the fashion industry — full of adventures, challenges, setbacks and victories. These past two years at SAYE have been, without a doubt, the biggest adventure: the toughest, the riskiest, the most far-reaching, but also the most exciting and inspiring for me. This is only the beginning, and I hope you will trust this small company that, by doing things the right way, is contributing its grain of sand toward a better world. Practising what we preach — walking the talk — is our motto: nearly 400,000 trees planted and production carried out with the highest level of material control to deliver a truly unique and authentic product. Say Yes To Change / SAYE Here’s a summary: In a recent interview with Alfonso Segura, CEO at Saye, published in Modaes, the Spanish sneaker brand’s leadership outlines the company’s ongoing transformation and its ambition to double revenue within the next three years. The conversation provides insight into how Saye is rethinking production, sustainability and management execution in order to scale the business in a more demanding global fashion market. Barcelona-based sneaker brand Saye is undertaking a deep transformation of its business model, production structure and brand positioning with the ambition of doubling its revenue within the next three years. Following an internal operational review covering inventory management, product quality and wholesale performance, the company has tightened its manufacturing control and consolidated production in Portugal to improve consistency, supervision and reliability. One of the strongest messages emerging from this shift is the company’s critical view of sustainability discourse in the fashion industry. According to Saye, sustainability is often discussed far more than it is genuinely implemented. Rather than treating it as a marketing narrative, the brand argues that real sustainability depends on operational discipline — including supplier control, production oversight and designing products that last longer. This execution-focused philosophy is reflected in what the company describes as a leadership approach similar to having “a coach on the field.” Management is directly involved in day-to-day operations, working closely with factories, materials sourcing and product development. The idea is to ensure that strategy is not only defined at the top but actively enforced throughout the organisation. At the product level, Saye is also repositioning itself through price increases, enhanced manufacturing quality and upgraded materials and a stronger emphasis on durability. The brand is simultaneously redefining what sustainability means in practice. Moving beyond its earlier strictly vegan positioning, it now prioritises materials that can demonstrate measurable environmental performance, balancing footprint, functionality and product lifespan. This includes sourcing certified animal suede from controlled suppliers to improve quality and longevity, while continuing research into next-generation alternatives such as materials derived from coffee waste or lignin. In this framework, durability, carbon impact, water use and lifecycle performance, as well as complete traceability, are treated as more meaningful sustainability indicators than purely symbolic material choices. Ultimately, Saye’s repositioning signals a broader strategic transition: from a sustainability-led niche brand to an execution-driven, quality-focused footwear company aiming for scalable international growth. From a commercial perspective, the company continues to generate most of its sales in international markets, with the United States and key European countries among its primary growth drivers. While maintaining a strong direct-to-consumer focus, Saye is also refining its wholesale strategy to improve distribution quality rather than simply expanding doors. Supported by these operational changes and its product repositioning, the brand aims to double its revenue from around €4 million to approximately €8 million within the next three years, targeting steady, controlled growth built on stronger margins, improved product consistency and tighter supply-chain management rather than rapid, volume-driven expansion. #WALKTHETALK #SAYE - RBC latest views on Inditex
Once again, some interesting insights from RBC Capital Markets on Inditex’s situation — a true indicator or barometer of a sector that’s learning to react at hyper-speed. Not only in terms of how it produces and spots fashion trends, but also in how it responds to unexpected events and updates increasingly fluid strategic plans. RBC latest views on Inditex Pattern of trading in 2025: ITX saw sales in cc +4% in Q1, +6% yoy in Q2 and +9% yoy in its most recent trading period. We attribute this to weather and calendar factors in Q1, but also its ability to respond to trends in season. By geography Spain outperformed the market with H1 sales +7% yoy in cc, Europe ex Spain would have been close to that in cc, and the Americas sales were down yoy, but up in cc. Mexico, Brazil and the US contributed to a negative fx effect in H1. Competitive environment broadly stable. We see Shein as catering to a younger demographic, it is also more US exposed and big on China sourcing, so more risky as a business model. We have seen US domestic chains raising prices outside the US (for political reasons) to offset tariff impacts, and non US corporates eg Shein raising prices in the US. Tariffs/de minimis exposure. ITX has never used the de minimis route for product into the US and has experience of lots of different tariff regimes. It is relatively diverse in terms of sales and sourcing and the US is <10% of group revenue. Focus on quality of space. ITX has moved in recent years from a focus on number of stores to space contribution and now more to quality of space. Its absorption programme has been successful in our view, with store numbers down c.-30% and sales +30%. Non-Zara stores are an opportunity with openings in 35 countries in H1. Eg Stradivarius will open 7 stores in Germany this year. US a focus for expansion, Bershka may be coming in 2026. Outside of Spain and Portugal ITX’s market shares are generally low. In the US it only has 0.5% market share. Based on recent trends we believe Bershka may be introduced to the US market in 2026 with a handful of stores, although we believe this has not yet been finalised. In the US ITX competes with the likes of Apple, Sephora and Cheesecake Factory for space. We see more real estate opportunities for it eg from Forever 21 in the US and Hudson Bay in Canada. It is becoming more of an anchor tenant in the US with 2-3 year break clauses. It will open soon in its 26th state in North Carolina (Charlotte). In the US we estimate Zara Home generates >3% of its sales but it doesn’t have a single store there. Massimo Dutti is opening a second store in the Miami area. ITX prefers to go project by project in the US. In LA it has upgraded its flagship store from a 1k sq m store at Farmers Market to a 2.5k sq. m store at The Grove. This features all the latest in store tech initiatives. Sports/athleisure exposure. The US market features more sportswear and also off-price. ITX prefers to develop collections for existing concepts to cater for new trends. Eg Oysho has moved its offer from lingerie, pyjamas and home to athleisure in recent years. China more local and digital. ITX has reduced its store count down from 600 stores and its store optimisation work is now largely done there. Lefties expansion. Lefties has been around since the 1990s, originally as an outlet store for Zara excess inventory, then from 2010 it has had its own collections as Zara became more efficient on inventory control. It now has 210 stores in 18 markets, including online, but 85% of sales come from Iberia. Newer markets include France and Italy, with the UK to come soon. We believe margins for Lefties are close to the group average. Second phase of RFID benefits. These feature soft tags embedded in garments which enable assisted checkouts – these are now in ½ of Zara stores, and are being introduced to Pull & Bear and Bershka this year, and other concepts next year. ITX has also introduced click and collect and dropoff points in its larger stores and has been using SINT since 2019, to fulfil online orders using in store inventory. It also now has dedicated areas for shoes and accessories in 200 stores which improve size availability and free up time for shop assistants to serve customers. Opex efficiencies aided by new technology. ITX saw opex rise a bit above sales growth in H1 but it is good at adjusting opex over time, and we expect a stable opex to sales ratio going forward. The old rule of thumb still holds in our view that opex growth should equal broadly net space growth + ½ LFL + ½ fx impact. Warehousing capacity. ITX now has capacity eg in Zaragoza for several years more growth. Capex should fall next year (RBCe EUR2.3bn) which along with normalising working capital should contribute to a sharp improvement in FCF. ITX can thus continue with its dividend payments and is already paying out a healthy 90% of net income as dividends. H1 working capital outflow reflects phasing of supplier payments i.e ITX paid its suppliers later last year and payment terms have reverted to normal this year. The phasing mainly occurred in Q1, hence we estimate the Q1 cash was down -7% yoy. Our view: Sector Perform. The Inditex share price is down -4% ytd vs a +20% rise in the MSCI Europe Retailing index. We attribute this to a lack of sales and EPS momentum since late last year, plus concerns over ITX’s FCF profile and growth potential. However, ITX has made a good start to the new Autumn/Winter season, its FCF should inflect positively next year, as capex reduces, and valuation now looks more reasonable versus peers. Hence, we upgrade our rating to Sector Perform. A link to RBC most recent note on it is here: Earnings and FCF profile improving; upgrade to Sector Perform - A New Chapter: Building SAYE with Purpose and Passion
Wow, it’s been months since I last wrote, after several intense years during which I managed to write two books (Fashion Retail Safari & Fashion Goes Tech) full of reflections and experiences from nearly 20 years working in the industry that is closest to people: the end consumer. Years in which I had the chance to work directly with, or advise, major companies on their strategy and execution. But nothing compares to the reality and adrenaline of this experience. My pause in writing articles for The Fashion Retailer has a very good reason: embarking on a great and risky adventure—joining and leading the sneakers brand SAYE since April 2024. SAYE stands for Say Yes To Change, an explicit call for the need to change. Now more than ever, the world requires us to move away from radicalism, populism, and excesses fueled by disinformation and self-serving manipulation. People, wildlife, and the environment cannot be let down. We are responsible. #walkthetalk Our M89 ICON (the green stripe in cactus napa) Sometimes I wonder how to describe the feeling… I’d say it’s like being a hybrid figure between an executive, a captain, and a player on a sports team. It’s about playing every match, adapting the strategy along the way, but never losing sight of the goal. Today, we are a team of more than nine nationalities, united and motivated to keep sailing forward with enthusiasm, going against the current, yet optimistic about what lies ahead, knowing that every effort is rewarded. Founded in Barcelona in 2017, SAYE is a sustainable fashion brand born with a clear purpose: to challenge the conventional footwear industry by creating timeless sneakers that are both ethical and environmentally responsible. From the Poblenou neighborhood in Barcelona, we design our products and produce them using innovative materials, primarily made in Italy, Portugal, and Spain. At SAYE, design and responsibility go hand in hand. Inspired by retro aesthetics, our sneakers are crafted to be timeless—pieces you can wear for years—while using organic, recycled, and bio-based materials that minimize environmental impact. Every step of our process is rooted in transparency, ethical manufacturing, and respect for the people who make our products. SAYE is more than a sneaker brand—it’s a movement for a more conscious and responsible way of living. More than 365,000 Trees planted With every pair of sneakers purchased, we fund the growth of two trees and that’s just the beginning. We’ve planted trees in Australia, India, Africa, the Amazon, and Canada, and we’re also supporting initiatives focused on kelp restoration and ocean plastic collection. To make it happen, we’ve partnered with several NGOs such as One Tree Planted, Saving the Amazon, WeForest, Veritree, and now Greenspark. Ethical Manufacturing Today, 100% of our sneakers, socks and t-shirts are produced in Portugal, reinforcing our commitment to local, high-quality manufacturing. While many brands diversify their production across regions, we choose to concentrate ours close to home. Traceability BCome is a platform that allows us to track and measure the environmental footprint of all our products. Each product received a score and impact equivalence, helping us understand how our design and material choices affects the planets. Materials Sneakers crafted from organic, recycled and bio-based materials, including certified cow suede, bamboo, and corn. We are also exploring new innovative materials like mycelium, reused coffee, lignify and other plat-based materials. March 2021. TIME Magazine I feel the sense of absence once again, to all of you who have accompanied me and followed every post for so long. I hope you will support us on this new adventure. Say Yes To Change
